In Pursuit Of A New Economics: The Layered Agent (Extended)
This is a draft of my exploration into the layered economic actor, different from a blank-slate individualistic actor.
Latest
The Collapse of International Fiction and the Illusion of Parity
Why China Is Screwed
Is It All About Venezuelan Oil?
January Price Forecast Competition
Top 4 Stories of 2025 in Bitcoin
So many things happened in bitcoin in 2025. These are the top 4 narratives and categories of changes we saw this year.
Bitcoin And Energy Conservation
Bitcoin is not energy, but the conserved economic consequence of irreversible energy expenditure, carried through time and space.
Gold ATH Is Not Driven By Central Banks
We're told by social-media analysts that central banks are buying gold and that is why the gold price has been spiking. The data says different. Let's dive in.
BOMBSHELL: The New National Security Strategy Of The US
Energy Demand and Demographics
MSTR Hit Job, But Top Five Institutions Now In Bitcoin
December Price Forecast Competition
Is Peak Fear in Bitcoin Warranted?
The Business Cycle On Pause
Systemic Technical Debt in the Financial System
What can and will be done to fix the "forgot how to grow" system.
November Price Forecast Competition
Liquidity, Business Cycles, and Deglobalization
Explaining the Weird Market: From Slow-Motion Business Cycles to Shifting Liquidity and the End of Global Synchronization
FOMC Preview, Is AI a Bubble, and Gold/Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin Update, PMI Cycles, and Stocks Hit ATH
Macro Is Becoming Clear, Market Decision Still Ahead
Signals in Oil, Gold, Dollar and Yields
The Case Against Quantum Computing
Spring-Loaded Q4
Economic Arguments Against Vibe Coding
Opportunity cost, noise filtering, and the myth of productivity from DIY AI apps.
October Price Forecast Competition
Time For Action, What's Ahead For Bitcoin
Common Futurist Fallacies
Technological innovation depends on the underlying growth picture, it's not an independent driver of growth. Demographic decline is the limiter no one sees coming.
Flash Update - Federal Reserve Preview
Rate Cuts Coming, Employment Collapses, Bitcoin Bounces
Rethinking The Economic Center Of Gravity
From Rice Fields to Roman Aqueducts: False Models for GDP, Civilizational Complexity, and the False Narrative of a Balanced East and West
MSTR Decision Preview, Charts and More, Plus Fed Cut Expectations
September Price Forecast Competition
Whale Wars and Fed Shake Up
Trump, the Fed, and Bitcoin’s Next Move
Powell Failed To Thread The Needle, Bitcoin Bounces
Exhaustion In The Bitcoin Market
Bessent’s Bitcoin Bombshell and Planning for the Post-Adoption Future
The Fed’s Lose-Lose Situation Means a Win-Win for Bitcoin
Copper/Gold Ratio Gives Insights to Treasury Yields, Dollar, and Bitcoin
Macro Resistance For Bitcoin
August Price Forecast Competition
Global Macro Pivot Imminent, A Brief €100k Pause
Why Mesoamerica Had Civilization and Sub-Saharan Africa Didn’t
We must understand the past and the evolution of economies and civilizations to understand the tectonic shift that bitcoin adoption entails.
Steady Pressure Into Coming Breakout - Here's What To Watch
Where’s the Euphoria? Bitcoin Struggles with $120k
Macro Uncertainty And The Deeper Fundamentals
FOMO Is Coming, Where's the Next Bitcoin Top?
The Treasury Wave and Technical Patterns
Analyzing Current Trends in Payrolls, Yields, and the Dollar
July Price Forecast Competition
Bitcoin Supply Zones and Macro Update
Stuck in the Zone: Bitcoin’s Battle at $105k
Markets, Militaries, and Monetary Stress
Upward Tension, Technical Pause
All Signs Still Point Higher For Bitcoin
A World Without Inflation?
Understanding how fixed supply transforms economic incentives and re-routes the natural pressure to inflate.
June Price Forecast Competition
Bear Traps and Golden Crosses
Bitcoin and Macro Frustration Builds
Bitcoin’s Calm Ascent to New Heights
Have Retail Investors Abandoned Bitcoin?
While retail search interest may be down, easier access and altcoin fatigue suggest Bitcoin engagement is evolving—not disappearing.
Dollar Strength Returning, Plumbing Weakness Emerging
In Pursuit Of A New Economics: The Layered Agent
This is a draft of my exploration into the layered economic actor, different from a blank-slate individualistic actor.
The Dollar Stabilizes, ECB On Edge
Can Anything Logically Be Done About Fertility Collapse?
Navigating the most pessimistic and optimistic outlooks for tackling demographic decline.
Bitcoin Treasuries and Technical Signals Point to Next Price Target
Testing the Money Printing Hypothesis
Exploring three hypotheses about money printing, QE, and the flow of funds in the modern financial system.
Macro Update: Has The Dollar Bottomed and Gold Topped?
$100k in Sight as Saylor Doubles Down
On the Origins of Money and the Monetary Chasm
How Society Shaped the Origins of Money
May Price Forecast Competition
Bitcoin Breakout On New Institutional Demand And Market Signals
Dollar Doubts and Debt Dynamics
Bitcoin Holds Strong Amidst Market Panic and Volatility
Tariff Drama Shocks To The Market, But Is It Sustainable?
Augustus’ Fertility Laws and the Battle to Save Rome
How Rome's first emperor tried to reverse a demographic decline with legal and moral reform
April Price Forecast Competition
The Modern Effect Of Tariffs
Two Mental Traps That Derail Macro Thinking
Here's How Bitcoin Stair Steps To $1 Million
Bitcoin Signs of Life, Fighting Macro Headwinds
Crisis Signals and Bitcoin Calm: Reading Between the Fed Lines
Divergences, Dominance, and a Developing Breakout
The Euro's Last Recession?
Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: A Game-Changer for Global Adoption
10Y Breakdown and Recession Signals - Macro Update
March Price Forecast Competition
Bitcoin’s Wild Week, BlackRock’s Signal, and GDP Shock
Markets at a Crossroads as Q1 Volatility Kicks In
Bullish Fundamentals and Bybit Hack - How Bad Will The Bitcoin Dip Get?
Big Macro Update: Fear Runs High, but Markets Follow the Script
From Boredom to Breakout: Bitcoin’s Next Rally is Brewing
The Future of Reserve Assets - Gold vs Bitcoin
Dip Before Rip? Bitcoin Chart Updates - Pro
Can Gold Continue Its Rally? - Macro Update
February Price Forecast Competition
Bitcoin Chart Updates - Pro #52
FOMC, Dollar, Stocks - Macro Update - Premium
Announcement and Bitcoin Forecast - Premium
Bitcoin Insider #323
Trump takes office and we await his Bitcoin Executive Orders and hoping for Ross Ulbricht's freedom. A lot is coming for Bitcoin over the next few days!