In April 2016, I started the Bitcoin & Markets podcast because of the growing danger at the time posed by social attacks on Bitcoin’s decentralized consensus. These attacks were characterized by bad economics, and being an economist I had a lot to say. I proudly took part in the UASF and No2x movements, being the first person to publicly predict the success UASF, the day after it was released.
Bitcoin has grown since those earlier days. But the main enemy of Bitcoin remains poor economic understanding. Whether it's regulators, global Marxists, or bitcoiners ourselves, there is a long way to go in understanding what is the actual state of the world and where Bitcoin will fit into the future. We are all on this journey together!
The biggest blind spot for bitcoiners is inflation versus deflation. It is my position that we have experienced a 75-year global credit expansion, and we are in the final phase of that bubble now, the bust. You can't solve a debt problem with more debt, there is no way out of the deflationary bust using the same credit-based system tools. A bursting credit bubble is deflationary.
We are also entering an era of deglobalization for the first time in a century. We will shorten supply chains, and voluntarily increase cost in exchange for security of those supply chains. Deglobalization is yet another nail in the coffin of credit growth. International credit markets will naturally shrink as economies decouple and trust evaporates. In a counterintuitive way then, rising costs of deglobalization are a result of deflation (shrinking credit markets).
Demographics add yet another deflationary layer to the credit bubble. Fewer people, who can afford fewer goods, with countries who trust each other less, require less credit.
These are the reasons I'm firmly of the opinion that the problem we are facing a global deflationary bust fo the financial system. Where does bitcoin fit?
This is the most unique part of my thesis on this podcast and my content in general. We are stuck in a deflationary bust which manifests itself as a dollar shortage. It doesn't matter how much unproductive money is printed, because it all has to be paid back with interest, it only increases the debt burden, making the clamor for dollars worse in the future.
A dollar shortage can be relieved in only two ways. 1) Actually print money by adding unencumbered balances into people's accounts. Printing money through loans is not going to do it, because there is a deflationary offset of the liability. You have to add money into accounts, somewhere in the system, without a corresponding debt to get out of the deflationary forces. However, this would be highly inflationary, like a match in pile of dry grass. It will be avoided if at all possible by the powers that be.
The other option, 2) is money alternatives. During money shortages of the past, people looked to different forms of money to fill in the gap of demand for circulating monetary goods. Most of the time this is accompanied by a reduction in the division of labor and economic activity in general. We see this exactly today. While deglobalization is happening, the BRICS and other countries are signing bilateral agreements to use their own much more flawed currencies in international trade. We also see central banks buying gold. Most importantly for this podcast, we see billionaires down to people from the third world adopting bitcoin, along with nation-states like El Salvador and Bhutan.
That should give you a good introduction to my content. Thanks for checking us out. Hope you will become a member and active participant in our community!
Host, Economist, Author, Bitcoin Specialist
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