Bitcoin Gut Check

Bitcoin & Markets | May 13, 2026

Exploring the intersection of bitcoin, macroeconomics, markets, biology, and politics within the evolving global order.

It was only last week that bitcoin looked like it was breaking containment above $80,000. Price pushed higher, but at the time of writing it is back below $79,000. That is not a large move by itself, but when paired with unexpected macro developments, it creates real dissonance.

This is going to be a blatantly honest post, highlighting where things are making me uneasy and what could come next.

Bitcoin Charts

Last week, price was breaking above the top of the daily cloud (on extended settings). That is an extremely bullish situation, especially with all bullish boxes on this indicator about to be checked. However, price reversed and is back-testing the top of the cloud. A back-test is to be expected, but makes one uneasy moving into the second half of the week.

Price performance was weak. $83-85k was the resistance, but price stopped just why of that at $82,833. The 200-day is resistance here, but we didn't touch it. Price thoroughly tests support, but has been shy about testing resistance.

Last week:

"Next up is the 200-day moving average. Price is pushing right into it, now sitting just below that same horizontal resistance. This creates a tight cluster of levels in the $83–85k range, which should act as a magnet for price in the near term."

The 20-day MA, which is the middle of the Bollinger Bands is again acting as support. That's one bullish sign at least. The way we resolve this pinch between the 200- and 20-day MA's is going to dictate what happens over the next several weeks.

Breakdown? No breakout until at least next month. We struggle for support on the 50-day around $75k, try to get feet under the price for another run at the 200-day. By then, it will be far below $80k.

Break upward? Price should very quickly hit $85k and push higher into a real move.

People Are Overly Bearish

The amount of bearish charts on X today is insane. It seems as if 90% of the sentiment is for an new low around $50-60k. If that is the case, it is going to be VERY bad for overall sentiment, especially mine.

The Clarity Act is working it's way through the Senate finally, with the democrats agreeing not to fight it. We might actually get this thing passed. Fundamentally, it's not a bitcoin bill, but it does a few things like provide protection for self-custody. The limbo has been a weight on the market. If it turns into a sell the news event, we're screwed. I don't know how to put that nicely. I might have to be writing just for Rogue Macro for the next 6 months because bitcoin will be too depressing.

The bears are comparing today's price action to the middle of the 2022 bear market. I've highlighted it on the chart below.

As you can see, there are some surface similarities. Price has put in a temporary bottom and looks to be breaking out roughly 6-9 months after the ATH. Weekly RSI is also right at neutral.

However, this time, price is coming back from an oversold condition on the weekly. Back in 2022, weekly RSI had not hit oversold. There is a chance we form a bullish divergence with a new low, but the MACD doesn't seem to agree. The MACD has pivoted HARD. It does not match at all. Back in 2022, no such hard pivot took place.

Moving onto the weekly cloud comparison between today and 2022, we can see it's a completely different setup. Back then, price was entering from above, today it's coming from below. The top of the move in 2022 tapped the Kijun, which is all the way up at $93k today.

Below is an image I sent out on X. I've talked about the fact that 2023-2025 might not have been an actual bull market at all. PMI being in contraction speaks to that possibility. If that is the case, PMI is expanding right now, so that should mean price has a tailwind going higher.

The other thing that makes this period a very anxious one is that some macro indicators are also turning more bearish. They are running somewhat counter to my macro thesis, which makes me more uneasy. Let's take a look.

Macro

First up is PPI (Producer Price Index) which came out this morning. It was a very big surprise to the upside. Forecasts were for 0.5% MoM, and it came in at a blistering 1.4% MoM. A huge number.

This pushed the YoY number to 6.0%. CPI this week was also hot, but PPI is on another level. It's approaching COVID levels of disruption. Obviously this is coming from the Strait of Hormuz debacle, which affects more than just gasoline prices.

Fertilizer is a much talked about concern, that should light a fire under negotiators' butts. It's now being reported that the wheat harvest in the U.S. is forecast to be the smallest since 1972! And 70% of farmers are reporting that they don't have the fertilizer they need! And if things are that bad in the U.S., they're really bad elsewhere.

Every single major country wants this strait nuisance fixed immediately, but no other country is doing anything about it from what I'm seeing reported!? India supposedly sent ships weeks ago, same with Argentina, but no reported activity from them. Where's the French, the Japanese, the South Koreans, the Canadians, the Australians, the Danes or Germans? Nowhere to be seen. And they're going to get the worst effects.

Even Core PPI was hot. This is everything other than food and energy, the things we talked about above. Core climbed to 5.2%! This doesn't have to get passed on to consumers, but if it's not, the producers are about to get crushed.

I maintain that these are temporary, but I'm starting to grow concerned that major damage is coming our way, and that's not good for bitcoin IMO. It's a strong headwind at least.

Oil has not broken down below its 50-day MA yet, which again, I thought was likely to happen already. I've read some reports that up to 6 tankers not of Iranian origin passed through the strait in the last 24 hours. So, that is some good news that hasn't really spread yet.

U.S. Treasury yields as well are more persistent than I expected they would be. It's not at crisis levels like some macro chicken littles would have you believe, but it's stubbornly high.

Higher yields means higher growth, but in this case, it is higher nominal growth because it's paired with higher price inflation.

Where We Are Left

Let’s summarize. Bitcoin’s breakout was weak, and price is already testing support. The breakout is still intact, but it has not confirmed itself. Sentiment is extremely bearish, with many comparing today’s setup to January 2022. However, the indicators are notably different this time, and in several important ways, more bullish.

At the same time, we are approaching possible passage of the Clarity Act, which could become a sell-the-news event if the market is not ready to absorb good news. And finally, the global macro situation is uneasy. Inflation pressure, oil, fertilizer, food supply, and stubborn Treasury yields are all moving in the wrong direction.

This fits the idea of an intensification before resolution. My base case is still that the resolution will be generally positive: a return to oil glut, continued reindustrialization expansion in the United States, and a bitcoin rally. But there is also a real possibility that the intensification gets worse before it gets better.

The fertilizer issue is the most concerning from a humanitarian perspective. For markets, another bitcoin bear-market leg would be deeply demoralizing. That is where we are left: not broken, but not comfortable. The setup is still alive, but it needs to prove itself soon.

HODL strong. Thanks for reading! PLEASE SHARE!

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