Are You Ready For Bitcoin's Uptober?

Bitcoin & Markets | October 1, 2026

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What To Expect From October

Since the major 25% rally in mid-August, bitcoin has been remarkably stable. We then got another roughly 10% advance in mid-September without a significant correction.

That has left a lot of people waiting for a pullback before getting in. I think they might be disappointed.

At some point, we will get a substantial correction, perhaps around 20%. But my expectation is that it comes after the bears and fence-sitters have capitulated and FOMO'd back into the market. Just below the psychological $100,000 level would be an ideal place for that setup. By then, the major structural resistance levels will have been broken and the hope of buying another lower low will have largely disappeared.

The green box above shows bitcoin's historical October performance. Using the raw historical data, October has returned an average of roughly 18% and a median of roughly 13%.

However, there is a problem with using bitcoin's entire history. The earliest years contain enormous returns that are no longer representative of a trillion-dollar asset. The most obvious example is November 2013, when bitcoin gained roughly 450% in a single month.

So, I recalculated the monthly seasonality beginning in 2014.

Without 2013, October becomes bitcoin's strongest month, averaging roughly 15%, with a median return of about 11%. November, meanwhile, falls to a much more ordinary 7% average return. September remains the weakest month.

As I argued last week, the four-year cycle is dead. But that does not mean all seasonality disappears. Bitcoin increasingly trades within the same liquidity, portfolio and institutional environment as traditional financial assets. Q3 has historically been a difficult period for markets, while Q4 has generally been much stronger, being the best quarter for the S&P 500 as well. Bitcoin appears to exhibit a similar seasonal tendency.

More importantly, the monthly data doesn't show a convincing four-year pattern anyway. September, for example, was red for 5 years in succession beginning in 2017. Though now the last four Septembers have been green by remarkably consistent amounts.

The Path Toward $100,000

Three of the last five Octobers produced gains in roughly the 27%–40% range. I don't need anything close to that for the bullish thesis to work.

Above $100,000, the next major focal point is around $107,000, where bitcoin broke down following the previous all-time high. A strong October would put that level squarely in play.

My base case is therefore a very good October, perhaps 30%+.

Rather than giving everyone the correction they are waiting for, bitcoin could continue grinding higher and force sidelined investors back into the market. That is precisely the environment in which I'd expect the eventual correction to become more violent: bears capitulate, late buyers chase, sentiment flips overwhelmingly bullish, and then bitcoin delivers the 20% correction everyone expected several months earlier.

What To Expect By Year-End

The quarterly picture tells essentially the same story. Using the raw historical Q4 averages, bitcoin's previous all-time high falls roughly in the middle of the expected quarterly range.

Removing 2013 makes that historical Q4 performance less spectacular. Based on the adjusted monthly data, the seasonality looks approximately like this:

• Q1: +6%
• Q2: +20%
• Q3: +6%
• Q4: +33%

That is still a very strong seasonal bias toward the fourth quarter, but the composition changes considerably. October does most of the heavy lifting, while November and December are smaller positive on average.

It suggests that the strongest part of the year-end move should be front-loaded, with October providing the breakout and November or December providing the correction or consolidation.

The fundamental backdrop is very strong. Bitcoin treasury companies continue accumulating. ETFs are absorbing billions of dollars worth of bitcoin. STRC is approaching par again, potentially reopening another significant source of demand. Meanwhile, the macro backdrop has improved, with PMI expanding and U.S. economic growth running near 4%.

Something around 30% would be an exceptional month, but it would not be historically unusual for bitcoin. More importantly, it would also fit the current technical and fundamental setup.

Anyway, that's all for this short update on the bitcoin price. Thanks for your support, and please share this with anyone you think would find it valuable.

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