Bitcoin Price Update: Halfway Through Uptober

Bitcoin & Markets | October 14, 2026

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Halfway Update For October

October is supposed to be Uptober. Last post, we talked about historical October and Q4 returns and how seasonality could still be found in bitcoin if the 4-year cycle is dead.

Something around 30% would be an exceptional month, but it would not be historically unusual for bitcoin. More importantly, it would also fit the current technical and fundamental setup.

We are well behind on that forecast. Price is actually -2% in October so far.

Price is holding the 50-day moving average for now, and fighting to stay bullish.

I highlighted the areas that we discussed in depth at the time. Particularly back in May, when price was squeezing or pinching between the 200-day and the 20-day. If you recall, I said that if price broke up at that juncture, we are off to the races, but if price broke down, it was going to be several more months until we were challenging the same level. It broke down, and I was right that it took roughly 4 months to challenge the same area.

In fact, right now, price is trying to hold the top of May's price at $81-82k.

The setup looks much more promising here and I'm hoping bitcoin hold the 50-day this time.

Cloud For Timing

As for WHEN bull might regain the initiative, I turn to the daily Ichimoku cloud on my new extended settings. Bitcoin gets extended settings because of its 24/7 nature, but legacy derivative products like IBIT and MSTR restraint the spot market effect. So this is a less-extended cloud.

I did not write about it, but back in September, I remember watching the lagging span approaching the price structure (leftmost arrow). I thought it would be great if price could rally and avoid the re-cross of the lagging span back under the price structure. This maintains a bullish posture on the chart. Last week, I identified the same kind of set up. The lagging span was approaching the price structure. I drew the red paths on the chart. So far, this has fit price movement pretty nicely.

If these paths repeat, we should expect a price rally by Friday this week, and perhaps continuing into next week.

Moving to the weekly cloud on our extended settings, we can see a twist coming up. Twists in the cloud are times when support and resistance are low. Therefore, price tends to be attracted back into the twist. That twist is happening next week.

Conclusion

My base case is still for a substantial October, perhaps spilling into November now. But I admit that price has not followed through the way I thought it would. For years, I've said that most of bitcoin's gains comes in short bursts. You can see this on any long term chart. Only about 20% of the weeks captures 80% of the upside. Don't be divested in bitcoin when those big weeks hit.

It is very possible still to hit $100k in October, and a new ATH by the end-of-year. But first, we must hold the 50-day, break upward through the cloud twist, and show some serious strength.

If we don't have a good next 7 days, the chances of the 10% pull back we have today turning into a 20% pull back rises dramatically.

Anyway, that's all for this short update on the bitcoin price. Thanks for your support, and please share this with anyone you think would find it valuable.

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