Bitcoin Is Ready to Rip: New Cycle, Sudden Moves

Bitcoin & Markets | Nov 3, 2026

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Uptober Cancelled, Moonvember Coming Up

October turned into a complete bust for bitcoin, finishing down 7% on the month. That makes it the worst October in 12 years, since 2014!

October's performance is yet another sign that the traditional bitcoin cycle is dead. We need to look at bitcoin in a whole new way, using new metrics, new correlations, and new timing. We can no longer simply declare that the bear market is over and the bull market has begun based on where we are in the four-year cycle.

That's going to be one of the hardest things for long-time bitcoiners to wrap their heads around. It also calls into question the Power Law, rainbow chart, and stock-to-flow models. Bitcoin's price discovery is increasingly being driven not by retail traders on Binance, but by massive pools of institutional capital and their market makers.

As bitcoin becomes more integrated into the global financial system, it will also become more sensitive to major macroeconomic and political events. One of the biggest events of the year is today's US midterm elections, which have generated enormous uncertainty amid fake polling and manipulated prediction-market pricing. I expect a major release of tension once the results become clear.

I've argued that fake polling in traditionally Republican states, particularly when it shows surprising Democratic leads in pivotal races, can have the opposite effect of what political strategists intend. Rather than demoralizing voters, it can energize them. We'll soon see how those expectations hold up against the actual results.

My expectation is that markets will respond sharply as election uncertainty clears. I expect the most recent trends under this elevated uncertainty to reverse. Stocks and bitcoin could spike, while bond yields fall, particularly if the results remove a major source of political uncertainty.

Uptober was a dud. Moonvember is loading!

ISM PMI Business Cycle And Bitcoin

The PMI is a general business cycle indicator. No indicator is perfect, but PMI is pretty good. Looking at the chart below, you can clearly see how the boom-bust cycle in the broader economy has historically aligned with bitcoin's cycles. Even the missing bitcoin cycle from 2023 to 2025 somewhat fits. Bitcoin steadily climbed while PMI remained relatively weak.

October PMI has been released at 55.5, above forecasts. That's not breakaway speed yet, but it's a good sign that the economy is gaining momentum. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while readings >58 will mean the economy is booming, and bitcoin and other asset prices should benefit.

This is where the new bitcoin market structure becomes important. I've observed that bitcoin increasingly moves in a stair-step pattern, with brief bursts of explosive price appreciation followed by extended periods of sideways trading. That's largely how bitcoin advanced from 2023 onward. The same pattern appeared in reverse during the last year, with sharp selloffs followed by long periods of consolidation.

Now, we appear to be back in an upward stair-step market. The implication is important: we can't afford to sit on the sidelines waiting for confirmation. Gains could come in sudden bursts, leaving hesitant investors behind. The question is, where does the next step take us?

If bitcoin is increasingly driven by institutional capital rather than retail speculation, the broader business cycle should become a more important driver of price. Improving business conditions, stronger credit creation, and greater investor risk appetite could provide the fuel for bitcoin's next major advance.

The four-year halving cycle might be dead, but the business cycle certainly isn't. Instead of waiting for the next halving to tell us when bitcoin should rally, perhaps we should be watching for the next major acceleration in the real economy.

Moonvember might just be the beginning.

HODL strong. Thanks for reading! PLEASE SHARE!

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