BITCOIN SIGNS OF LIFE!
Bitcoin breaks out of 6 month downtrend, but still has some hurdles ahead.
Bitcoin & Markets | Apr 14, 2026
Exploring the intersection of bitcoin, macroeconomics, markets, biology, and politics within the evolving global order.
Fake Out Pattern Broken
I identified this false breakout pattern weeks ago. Historically, it was a fairly safe strategy in bitcoin to buy breakouts or ATHs with a tight stop-loss at the former high. This is a strategy that is often used in the stock market as well.
However, over the last 6 months, bitcoin has offered 3 beautiful breakouts, all of which turned into fake outs.
Finally, the price has clearly broken this pattern with a new high—the highest since Feb 4.
This move also broke the overall downtrend from the ATH last October. This is a beautiful sight to see, but follow-through is key here. We need to see the price continue up to $81k to make this breakout legit.
Along with breaking the linear downtrend, bitcoin is also attempting to break the 100-day MA. Interestingly, the 100 DMA also marked the top of the January bounce.
Resistance
Members in the Telegram community reminded us of the STH Realized Price. This is the level where short-term holders are underwater. This metric is $81k right now, which provides the next nearest test for price.
After clearing $81k, bitcoin is going to have to get over the hurdle of $85,000. That is the bottom of the last stair-step range, and will also line up with the 200-day MA in a few more days.
That is the key test level for bitcoin right now. Once it gets above $85,000, it should be a rapid rise back to the ATH. However, it will need a pretty powerful bid to pierce through that level.
Eventually, the options regime will turn positive and reinforce movement to the upside. Many people will get FOMO and rush in with the cash they had on the sidelines, waiting to buy at $40k.
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