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Can We Finally Start The Bull Market - Bitcoin Update

Echoes of the four-year cycle and PMI dominance.

Bitcoin & Markets | July 22, 2026

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Flashback to the last update on July 9, 2026:

Things I'm watching:

1. $67,000 level

2. Potentially forming another channel, top around $70,000 for the next move.

3. 200 DMA and the horizontal area around $80,000. If bitcoin clears that zone, the bull market is underway, and $100,000 should happen fast.

4. Movement of the Clarity Act in the US Senate. Price will tell us how likely it is to pass. If we start heading into the higher levels mentioned above, Clarity is more likely to pass.

We are still watching $67,000. We haven’t had a chance to test #2 or #3, but #4, the Clarity Act, has been all over my X feed. It appears Trump has agreed to the strict ethics section, a complete ban on US officials, including the president, launching meme coins.

Price is signaling a nothing burger.

No Bull

Today, I have a brand new bitcoin chart update for you. With price potentially reversing after a nine-month correction, we could be looking at finally getting the bull market we missed last time.

That’s right. We didn’t get a true bull market in 2024–2025. Let me explain.

Many people have talked and written about the four-year cycle and its potential disappearance, including yours truly. Defenders will point to last year’s high occurring on almost the exact right day according to four-year-cycle theory.

I think what we are experiencing is an echo of the old cycle. The forces that created it are no longer there (massive halving effect), but their psychological echo continues to manifest in the chart. As soon as something big happens outside that four-year loop, the idea will quickly vanish.

You might say, “But dude, the price went to a new all-time high.”

Sure, bitcoin rose significantly from the 2022 bottom. However, it never entered the exponential phase normally associated with a bitcoin bull market, or any major market rally. There were only a couple of days of real euphoria when we finally passed $100,000.

Instead of going parabolic, price advanced steadily with the introduction of the ETFs, institutional adoption, treasury companies, the halving, and relentless DCA demand. Those forces were enough to push bitcoin higher, but they were not enough to produce a true macro-driven bull market.

There is, however, a new addition to my bitcoin framework that explains the missing bull market. I think it is now the proper way to analyze bitcoin after the halving lost most of its relevance to price.

Make sure you are following both my accounts on X, @AnselLindner and @RogueMacro_.

Business Cycle

Bitcoin has historically been highly correlated with the direction of the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The Purchasing Managers Index is widely regarded as a business cycle measurement. Bitcoin's most explosive moves tend to occur when PMI is rising decisively through expansion territory. Bitcoin bull markets tend to peak as PMI peaks and begins rolling over.

Now look at what happened during the last “cycle.” PMI experienced the longest mild contraction in the series’ history, spending 35 of 36 months below 50.

There was no real business-cycle expansion. That is why there was no exponential bitcoin bull market.

Bitcoin-specific forces were still overwhelmingly positive. The ETFs brought in new demand, treasury companies accumulated massive positions, the halving reduced new supply, and long-term holders continued to DCA. These forces carried bitcoin from below $20,000 to above $100,000 despite an extremely weak manufacturing environment.

That is impressive, but it was not a normal bitcoin bull market. It was an institutionally driven advance occurring against a stagnant macroeconomic backdrop.

This also changes how we should interpret the last nine months. Bitcoin may not be suffering through a bear market following a completed bull cycle. It may be experiencing a massive correction between the institutionally driven first stage and the macro-driven bull market that never arrived.

PMI has now broken above 50 and risen to 53.3. If it continues moving higher, toward 55, 58, or even 60, bitcoin will finally have the business-cycle tailwind that was missing throughout the last advance.

If we get that, we should get the exponential phase in bitcoin, too.

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