Adapted from a post on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report #200
Usually, it is the mainstream media selling doom and gloom. "If it bleeds, it leads," as the old adage goes. But, we're in a weird time. The last few months, I've noticed it is the alternative media, the ones we have grown to trust throughout the pandemic and election fortification controversies, who are now selling fear of an impending collapse of the economy, our whole society, and even western civilization itself.
Beware the fear hustlers. It's hard to put into words exactly what fear hustling is. As a short hand, people predicting something WAY out of the norm or historical trend is a good start. People calling for $200 oil comes to mind, as well as hyperinflation bugs for the past 4 decades. It sells books, gets clicks and paid subscriptions. Fear hustling is what the climate alarmists do, claiming we only have 12, no 8, no 4 years to "save the planet", so vote for them.
This is not to say that we aren't going through painful and scary times, but the market is resilient and there is a limit to how bad it can get. For things to get completely unhinged, all feedback mechanisms in the market would have to break. There is a reason oil cannot get to $200/bbl, because demand would drop so precipitously it would outrun any supply constraint, and prices would soon return to a general trend.
Right now, we are transitioning away from a credit-based global system, globalization, hegemonically imposed peace, and strong international institutions. Globalism and decadence is giving way to more localism and sounder values, both morally and economically. The economy will shrink in certain respects and grow in others.
It is not the end of western civilization anymore than the countless other times our world has embarked on a new era. We must keep our wits about us, so we can see the truth and come out as good, or better, on the other side. For example, the Euro will likely break up in coming years, and current readers in Europe will be told it is "the end of life as you know it". Evil far-right wing fascists want to kill the Euro, that's why it's struggling, don't you know. In reality, the Euro was doomed from inception. It was a fantasy of Marxist globalists in the first place. We will return to a sustainable mean.
We will also be told (and I see this already everywhere) that Russia, China, and the BRICS will take over the world and be the next pluralist hegemony with all the corruption and authoritarianism that goes along with it. Let me tell you, that is so unlikely it's laughable. Russia is winning the war in Ukraine for sure, but it is doing so because Ukraine and Western Europe are so weak. Weak Western Europe is the status quo the globalists are making you fear losing.
"Life as you know it" in Europe is as a weakling, with elites using political tricks and bribery to get what they want, telling you what you can or cannot do, and sucking the periphery dry. A change will be for the better, although hard at the time.
I can't leave the US out of this. "Life as you know it" here is ensuring order elsewhere, while letting your own house become a disaster. Americans are forced to sacrifice for the global order. Thankfully, that is ending.
We are told that the progressive Marxists in the White House today, along with their crazy identity politics, will lead to civil war. Again, very unlikely, but it concerns us just enough to make us avoid confronting collectivism. First, the crazy Marxists don't have any guns; second, they don't have any kids and immigrant voters are turning on them; and third, their crazy ideas are the ideas of spoiled brats, they've never had to do an honest day's work and actually provide value to their fellow man. A civil war is expensive, and spoiled brats hate that.
I'm not sure where I'm going with this, other than to say I'm getting sick of the fear porn. I'm also not saying that everything is fine, and we are right on track with the inevitable march of progress toward a world absent of suffering. The world will deindustrialize a little. We will be less affluent, but more happy and healthy.
Think of it like this: The world is like a 35 year old man living in his parent's basement. He has a super easy life of video games, trolling on Twitter, mommy doing his laundry, not paying bills, having meals cooked for him, etc. Right now, he is being forced to grow up, get a job and start a family. It's very painful and scary, but it's "good" for him. It's also good for the world to get back to sounder economics and values.
Beware of people selling fear and embrace the challenge of making a better world. When people say the mother-of-all-crashes is coming, grocery store shelves will be empty, and you need to prep for a breakdown in civilized society, after you give it a fair hearing, see it for what it is. Alarmism. They are trying to get you worked up so you part with your money or your freedom. The most likely scenario is that we maintain roughly the same standard of living, but return toward local norms.
Life will get better because we won't be in a frenetic, leveraged, credit-bubble, clown world, enabled by a unipolar political and military hegemony. After decades on the teat of easy credit and a secure and peaceful international order, the world has to grow up and make hard decisions. It is a return to a life as it was intended to be lived. I hope that makes sense.