Bitcoin & Markets Outline of Guiding Macro Thesis
This framework summarizes driving economic forces and other macro trends.
1. A terminal deflation for the Dollar system
- Characterized by high debt levels and dollar shortages
- EM dollar denominated deficits
- Swap lines whereby EM fiat currencies are continually devalued
2. Bitcoin will continue to expand and encroach on the traditional financial system
- Capital expenditure in bitcoin related businesses will continue to grow
- A noteable parallel economy and class will emerge
- Marginal Central Banks will accumulate reserves
3. Peak China
- CCP power has hit its cyclical high
- China has never been able to project power
- It's geographically and demographically limited
- Negative cultural aspects
- Japan, Taiwan, US containment
4. Distributed systems
- Shrinking supply chains
- Balkanization of international trade
- De-financialization
- Shift toward localism
- Agriculture
- Production
- Individualism
5. European breakup
- Too dependent on foreign resources
- Poor defense capabilities
- Poor demographics and credit bubble
- Northern European independence first
- End of the Euro
- End of the EU by 2030