Bitcoin & Markets Outline of Guiding Macro Thesis

This framework summarizes driving economic forces and other macro trends.

1. A terminal deflation for the Dollar system

• Characterized by high debt levels and dollar shortages
• EM dollar denominated deficits
• Swap lines whereby EM fiat currencies are continually devalued

2. Bitcoin will continue to expand and encroach on the traditional financial system

• Capital expenditure in bitcoin related businesses will continue to grow
• A noteable parallel economy and class will emerge
• Marginal Central Banks will accumulate reserves

3. Peak China

• CCP power has hit its cyclical high
• China has never been able to project power
• It's geographically and demographically limited
• Negative cultural aspects
• Japan, Taiwan, US containment

4. Distributed systems

• Shrinking supply chains
• Balkanization of international trade
• De-financialization
• Shift toward localism
• Agriculture
• Production
• Individualism

5. European breakup

• Too dependent on foreign resources
• Poor defense capabilities
• Poor demographics and credit bubble
• Northern European independence first
• End of the Euro
• End of the EU by 2030