Bitcoin & Markets Outline of Guiding Macro Thesis

This framework summarizes driving economic forces and other macro trends.

1. A terminal deflation for the Dollar system

  • Characterized by high debt levels and dollar shortages
  • EM dollar denominated deficits
  • Swap lines whereby EM fiat currencies are continually devalued

2. Bitcoin will continue to expand and encroach on the traditional financial system

  • Capital expenditure in bitcoin related businesses will continue to grow
  • A noteable parallel economy and class will emerge
  • Marginal Central Banks will accumulate reserves

3. Peak China

  • CCP power has hit its cyclical high
  • China has never been able to project power
  • It's geographically and demographically limited
  • Negative cultural aspects
  • Japan, Taiwan, US containment

4. Distributed systems

  • Shrinking supply chains
  • Balkanization of international trade
  • De-financialization
  • Shift toward localism
  • Agriculture
  • Production
  • Individualism

5. European breakup

  • Too dependent on foreign resources
  • Poor defense capabilities
  • Poor demographics and credit bubble
  • Northern European independence first
  • End of the Euro
  • End of the EU by 2030