Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK is back for a HUGE week in central bank and bitcoin news. We cover this week's FOMC policy decision and press conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. We discuss all the central banks raising rates in the face of a banking crisis and bank runs. Next, we discuss the crackdown by US officials on the bitcoin space, with Wells notices being sent out widely to many companies, and the Economic Report of the President devoting two entire chapters to understanding and spreading FUD about bitcoin.
A lot is happening right now and we try to cover it all. CK and I have been positive regarding Chair Powell in the past, but it seems as if central bankers have lost their minds tightening while liquidity is evaporating rapidly. We agree that the recent attacks on scams in the space, are not meant as an attack on Bitcoin, and in the end everything is good for Bitcoin.
Lastly, we look at several charts of bitcoin, the stock market, US Treasury yields, and the dollar. We like to do this to ground our conclusions in the market truth. We are emotional animals and can be pulled this way or that very easily. It is the charts, the market price, that is the source of truth much moreso than our emotions or individual rational interpretations. What do the charts show us? Things are not as dire as the headlines would imply.
Of course, it takes time for economic conditions as a whole to be translated across the market, but we do not see the patterns in the charts that lead up to the type of crises many are predicting. In fact, Bitcoin is rallying and stocks still have higher highs and higher lows. Treasury yields point to a liquidity crisis similar to 2019, and the dollar is not telegraphing acute global stress.
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Find More and Links
- Slide deck
- Powell speaks at FOMC press conference
- Whitehouse Economic Report
- Barney Frank was right about Signature Bank
- Treasury looks to insure all deposits via Bloomberg
- Yellen flip flops
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