US GDP Numbers and Japan's New Money Bazooka - Fed129

We talk about US Q4 and 2022 real GDP numbers in relation to inflation and recession. Then Japan's new bond buying program.

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles

Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.

In this episode, CK has returned from his trip to India and joins us for a big day of new economic data from the US.



On deck for this episode is a quick discussion about the US debt ceiling and then we get into the main topic in my opinion, US GDP numbers for Q4 2022 and the whole year.

US real GDP in Q4 rose at an annual rate of 2.9%. That is a pretty significant number for people expecting recession any day now. For the year of 2022, real GDP increased by 2.1% These numbers are in-line with my predictions of returning to a post-GFC (Great Financial Crisis) normal of low growth and low inflation.

The last topic of today’s episode is all about Japan’s new monetary bazooka, an amendment to “Principle Terms and Conditions for Funds-Supplying Operations against Pooled-Capital.” That’s just a long label for a program where the Bank of Japan (BOJ) lends money to banks to buy government bonds so the central bank doesn’t have to buy them directly. They’ve made it possible to give these loans at negative interest rates, and extended the term to up to 10 years. That means, they could pay banks to buy JGBs.

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Charts

Bitcoin daily with RSI
Bitcoin daily with RSI
US real GDP for Q4 2022
US real GDP for Q4 2022
Final Sales growth
Final Sales growth
Japanese yield curve kink gets deeper
Japanese yield curve kink gets deeper
Japanese 10-year government bond yield
Japanese 10-year government bond yield

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