Market Commentary #48

Published as part of Issue #48 of the Bitcoin Pulse on 4/9/2020. Join for more full technical and fundamental analysis.

The Eye of the Storm

Traditional markets are in the eye of the storm. They are enjoying a rally that won’t last. The virus panic, which our benevolent leaders induced, is starting to subside (by design?). The Chinese strategy of lock downs and fabricated numbers to manage public reaction, has been copied to a T. But fake numbers can create productivity.

Our benevolent leaders panicked right along with all their brain dead followers. The amount of stimulus that was unleashed over the last month will come back to haunt us.

The stimulus and manufactured sense of victory could kick off a massive rally in stocks. But like we’ve seen since the financial crisis in 2008, asset prices will rally while the real economy stagnates. The real economy won’t snap back. And the dollar shortage won’t go away.

It seems as if the crisis has abated for the time being. Whether the next leg down is next month or 6 months from now, we can’t tell. It is coming though.

Don’t forget, “flattening the curve” extends the timeline for the virus to work its way through the population. It’s possible the big outbreak centers have broken the exponential rise in cases. However, the present danger is as things open back up, and the numbers begin to rise again.

As for Bitcoin, everything is good for Bitcoin. It made it through this phase of the crisis relatively unscathed and headed toward the halving. Miners are in good shape. There’s relatively little drama in the bitcoin space. People aren’t too bullish or bearish. I’ve been saying April is setting up to be a big month for bitcoin, and if the general market sentiment improves, however briefly, that is a positive for bitcoin. Then when the next leg down hits stocks, bitcoin will be post-halving and ready to rally by itself.